The hope was that a cheap ticket for local public transport would encourage car drivers to switch to public transport. A study now published by the Ariadne science network shows how this has been achieved.
According to the study, the Deutschlandticket has led to lower emissions in the transport sector: CO2 emissions from car traffic fell by around 6.7 million tons in the first year of the ticket, which was introduced in May 2023, corresponding to a 4.7 percent reduction in total transport emissions. This was announced by the Ariadne science network on Monday, October 7. The researchers noted that the price increase from 49 euros to 58 euros planned for 2025 could significantly reduce the effect.
According to the study, the number of train journeys by public transport increased by 30.4 percent for journeys over 30 kilometers after the introduction of the Deutschlandticket, while people used their cars 7.6 percent less. This shifted traffic from road to rail: the proportion of train journeys on all routes over 30 kilometers increased from around ten percent to twelve percent.
For the study, the Ariadne scientists analyzed mobile phone and movement data of the population in Germany. They compared this with data from other European countries and regions in which the nationwide public transport ticket had not been introduced. It was therefore not a “simple before-and-after comparison”, but a “first causal study” with a control group, “similar to clinical studies”, explained Ariadne.
From next year, the Germany Ticket will cost 58 euros per month. The researchers expect the number of train journeys to fall by 14 percent as a result of the price increase, while the number of kilometers driven by car will increase by 3.5 percent. This would reduce car emissions by just 3.6 million tons of CO2 instead of the previous 6.7 million tons.
In mid-September, the federal and state transport ministers announced that the Deutschlandticket would cost €58 from 2025, nine euros more than before. The price increase was sharply criticized by environmental associations, among others. They expect people to cancel their tickets and that fewer people will then use public transport. The Deutschlandticket is currently used by an average of 13 million people every month.
Looking at overall mobility, however, there was no statistically significant effect, according to the researchers: People had therefore not generally been on the move more as a result of the Deutschlandticket - but they had simply chosen other means of transportation for their journeys.
Around 146 million tons of greenhouse gases were emitted in the entire transport sector in Germany in 2023. This corresponds to a fifth of all emissions nationwide in that year. Most emissions in the transport sector are produced on the road, primarily by cars, trucks, buses and motorcycles with combustion engines. In recent years, the sector has far exceeded the emission levels required to achieve national and European climate targets.
The climate impact of the nationwide ticket has been repeatedly questioned. However, other studies have already indicated that it contributes to a shift in traffic from road to rail.
Customers of the Deutschlandticket use their car 16% less on average, for example, according to a survey published in May by the Association of German Transport Companies (VDV). According to the survey, 12% of journeys made with the Deutschlandticket would have been made by other means of transport without the ticket.
